The Strait of Hormuz, situated between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, is the world’s most strategically important chokepoint, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes daily.
As tensions rise between Iran, Israel, and America, one serious question comes up—what if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?
This could lead to a major oil price hike, more regional instability, and an energy crisis for countries like India and China, which depend heavily on oil from the Middle East.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz, bordered by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, is approximately 39 km wide at its narrowest point and is considered the world’s most critical oil export chokepoint.
According to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around 21 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily in 2023.
Can Iran Really Block It?
Iran’s Parliament has passed a proposal to close the Strait, and yes, Iran has the capability—its navy is strong enough to do it. But let me break this down for you in a few key points.
India imports about 60 to 65 percent of its total oil from Gulf countries, and oil from these nations reaches India through the Strait of Hormuz.
Similarly, China imports around 40 to 45 percent of its total crude oil from the Middle East, and this oil also travels to China via this crucial waterway.
India consumes about 5.5 million barrels of oil per day, and out of this, nearly 2 million barrels come through the Strait of Hormuz. In terms of total oil consumption, India ranks third in the world—after China, with the United States at number one.
| Country | Daily Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day) | Oil Imported via Strait of Hormuz |
|---|---|---|
| India 🇮🇳 | ~4.9 million bpd | ~60% of total oil imports |
| China 🇨🇳 | ~15.4 million bpd | ~35–40% of total oil imports |
Based on the evidence given above, it can be said that Iran does have the capability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz in the short term, but doing so in the long term may not be practical or sustainable.
Iran’s Capabilities to Block the Strait:
By now, it’s clear that the Strait of Hormuz is a highly strategic chokepoint, and Iran has the capability to block it. But what exactly are the assets Iran possesses to make that happen?
One of the key tools is naval mines—hundreds of submarine mines that can be quietly deployed under the sea to disrupt tanker movements.
Iran has small, fast-attack boats that are capable of launching high-speed strikes and can damage oil tankers. Apart from this, Iran has also deployed anti-ship missiles like Hormoz-2, Noor, and Khalij Fars along its coastline, which can target ships passing through the Strait.
Iran also has a fleet of drones and submarines, which are used for both surveillance and attack purposes.
Even a temporary blockade of the Strait by Iran could seriously disrupt global energy flows and send shockwaves through the oil market.
Oil Prices Could Skyrocket
In case of any kind of security threat in this region, oil prices can rise sharply. In the past too, conflicts in this area had pushed oil prices to around $90 to $100 per barrel.
If any similar threat emerges now, prices could surge even further—possibly reaching $100 to $150 per barrel.
Nations like India, China, and Japan are keeping a close watch on this critical point, as any blockade could disrupt supply chains, raise transportation costs, and trigger a spike in global inflation.
Could This Lead to a Full-Scale War?
There are several factors in this region that indicate it could be heading toward a full-scale war.
For example, the United States has a strong naval presence here and has clearly stated that it can take military action to protect the Strait of Hormuz. Now, if Iran reacts in any way, the U.S. is likely to respond with military force.
Israel is already involved in this conflict. On the other side, Iran supports rebel groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, who are capable of attacking incoming oil tankers using drones.
So, in this way, what starts as a small-scale conflict could easily escalate into a full regional war.
Is India Prepared?
India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has stated that the country has sufficient oil reserves, so there will be no immediate problem even if the Strait is blocked.
In the past too, India had deployed some of its naval ships in the region in response to similar threats.
India also has other options—it can diversify its oil supply routes and purchase crude from countries like Russia, Venezuela, and the United States.
Although India consumes around 5.5 million barrels of oil per day, it imports only about 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. The remaining 3.5 to 4 million barrels come from other routes and countries.
Conclusion
Along with being a narrow waterway, the Strait of Hormuz is a lifeline for the world. If it gets blocked, oil prices can rise sharply, global inflation may follow, and regional tensions can escalate further.
In India’s case, the situation could be even more challenging, because fuel supply is a sensitive issue—and any disruption could seriously impact millions of families across the country.